Early Filings Include Few Surprises

We're a week since the first official filings for public office. I have yet to see a filing that has changed Oregon House ratings. However there are a few districts I will plan to keep my eyes on.

HD 30

Incumbent Rep. Joe Gallegos will run. So far his only challenger is David Taylor, an member of the Independent Party and a newcomer to the political arena. Taylor's biggest asset is his service in the United States Marine Corps from 2001 to 2013. If Republicans can't find a decent (or better) candidate, I would expect Gallegos to hold this seat.

Update: I fixed a grammatical error which suggested Gallegos would be expected to hold the seat even if Republicans do eventually find a good candidate. I'm waiting to see who announces before making that determination. Thanks to Oregon Outpost for bringing it to my attention.

HD 23

Mike Nearman has drawn a primary challenger. Beth Jones, a Republican and former Independent Party candidate in HD 23 is running with the backing of Senator Brian Boquist. Senator Boquist has made several in-kind contributions to Jones. Former Rep. Jim Thompson appears to have become an Independent and is considering running. He previously waged an unsuccessful write-in campaign against Nearman after losing in the primary in 2014.

Incumbents are difficult to knock out period. It's important to remember that anti-incumbency wasn't responsible for the primary outcome in HD 23. Instead voting records and which candidate gained social conservative support were primarily responsible for the results. Assuming no changes in alliances, Nearman should retain his seat.

Disclaimer: I am employed by Rep. Nearman in his Legislative office. I am not affiliated with the Nearman for Oregon campaign.

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