Rating the Oregon Senate
At the end of August I introduced ratings for the Oregon House of Representatives. Not much has changed in those ratings since then. We still have about 5 months until the filing deadline when the big action begins. I don't expect a lot of changes in the ratings until then.
This has given me the opportunity to develop ratings for the upper chamber of the Oregon Legislature. 16 out of 30 Oregon Senate seats are up in 2016. Because of how the 4 year terms are staggered, most of the competitive seats in the senate actually come up in non-presidential years. There are currently no toss-ups in my 2016 ratings and it's possible there won't ever be (depends on how recruiting goes).
These ratings follow the same formula as before:
- Safe Republican: These seats are consistently and solidly Republican. Democrats are extremely unlikely to win.
- Lean Republican: These seats favor a Republican but are more competitive and could be won by a Democrat.
- Toss Up: These seats could be won either by Republicans or Democrats.
- Lean Democrat: These seats favor a Democrat but are more competitive and could be won by a Republican.
- Safe Democrat: These seats are consistently and solidly Democrat. Republicans are extremely unlikely to win.