Primary Races I'm Watching
I have been a little busy lately. I don't anticipate I will be able to do a full blown liveblog of election results. I did want everyone to know how to follow the results and which races they should watch. There are a number of very competitive primaries on both sides here in Oregon. Below you can visit the ORESTAR Elections Results page as well as view my Twitter feed and The Oregonian's Political feed. I will do my best to livetweet primary election night and you can fall back the Oregonian if I stop for some reason.
Faye Stewart and Sam Carpenter seem to be the top tier candidates in a field that also includes Dan Laschober and Mark Callahan. I haven't seen polling in this race either. Stewart or Carpenter both have the ability to win this primary for the honor of demolished by the Wyden machine. Wyden has the highest favorable of any Democrat in Oregon.
Congressional District 5
I have a personal interest in this race as I've been working over the last few months for Colm Willis on this race. There are three other candidates: Ben West, Seth Allen, and Earl Rainey. There are all good guys who have worked hard and have run a mostly clean campaign which I appreciate. Even if I didn't work for him I would say Colm is the favorite here.
Congressional District 4
Perennial candidate Art Robinson has been running against DeFazio as long as I can remember. Jo Rae Perkins has mounted a challenge to him in the primary and has received newspaper endorsements because Art Robinson doesn't exactly appear to have a winning strategy in this district. Robinson's high name ID coupled with Perkins' endorsements could make this one close. If I had to guess I would say Robinson will barely win it this time, but anything can happen.
Bud Pierce and Allen Alley have been battling it out since Alley got into the race just before the filing deadline. An OPB Poll conducted this month shows Pierce with a 3 point lead. Pierce is at 25%, Alley is at 22%, and 36% are undecided. The margin of error is +-5.7% which makes this a tossup. I think Pierce will eventually emerge victorious.
Secretary of State
Dennis Richardson is taking on Sid Leiken. There's no polling on this race. My guess is Richardson probably wins because of the high name ID he retains from his run for Governor in 2014.
House District 23
In an odd turn of events, Conservative Mike Nearman is being challenged by Conservative Beth Jones. Not a lot has been happening in this race and based on the fundraising and name ID advantage for Nearman I'm going to say he probably will run away with this one.
House District 26
This race is where the GOP has most to lose. Matt Wingard has been rocked by a number of political scandals and did the right thing by retiring a few years ago. Now he's doing the wrong thing and he's back running for his old seat. Meanwhile Rep. John Davis — who replaced Wingard — has endorsed John Boylston. On the other hand, Conservative groups like Oregon Right to Life have lined up behind Rich Vial. On the other, other hand there has been some outside spending against Matt Wingard and the other candidates in the district as well. The outcome of this race is unknown to pretty much everyone and this one has been getting nasty. I have no idea how this one will turn out.
House District 56 & Senate Distrct 28
OPB has done a good job covering this minor mess in Southern Oregon.
In SD 28, C.W. Smith is running a Republican write-in campaign to take on Dennis Linthicum (who is on the ballot and was previously walloped in a primary challenge to Greg Walden). Todd Kepple is running an Independent Party (IPO) write-in campaign in the same race. In HD 56, Al Switzer is running a Republican and IPO write-in Campaign against Werner Reschke (who is on the ballot). Write-in campaigns are very hard and it's a confusing situation but here's the likely outcome: In SD 28 Linthicum is likely to win just because of the difficulty of a write-in campaign, but Todd Kepple is likely to win the Independent Party nomination via write-in and will face Linthicum in the fall. In HD 56 Al Switzer is probably going to win the IPO write-in and lose the GOP write-in which sets up a fall election between GOP Nominated Reschke and IPO nominated Switzer. The general is much harder to predict since Democrats are more likely to support an IPO nominee and the two IPO candidates will pull from Republicans
Secretary of State
Val Hoyle, Brad Avakian, and Richard Develin are locked in a tight race for Secretary of State. Hoyle seems to have won the fundraising battle while Avakian has picked up most of the major liberal interest group endorsements, and Devlin has received nearly every major newspaper endorsement in the state. The latest poll puts Avakian up with 18%, Hoyle at 15%, and Devlin at 13%. 43% are undecided and another 11% say they won't vote in this primary. These are all within the margin of error at +-3%. This primary is anybody's game.