The Complete Guide to iOS Content Blockers

iOS 9 ships with a new feature: the ability for apps to block specific content in Safari. This has lead to the creation of a new market of iOS apps commonly referred to as content blockers. These apps typically block any number of the following: website ads, trackers, and comments. If you want to learn more how content blockers work, read the iOS 9 reviews by Federico Viticci and Rene Ritchie.

The market for content blockers has developed very quickly with a good supply of quality paid and free apps. It's developed so fast in fact that one has already been retired.

Note: Recommendations are generally respected members representative of the Apple community. Additional hat tip to Dave Mark at The Loop who compiled a lot of this data originally.

Paid

Free

Unreleased

Retired

Oregon Voters Can't Abuse A Tool They Haven't Used

Update: Saul Hubbard published a correction noting that there have been three Oregon Legislators that have been recalled since Oregon offcially became a state in 1857. They are:

  • Rep. Harry Merriam (R—Goshen)
  • Rep. Pat Gillis (R—Portland)
  • Sen. Bill Olson (R—Southern Oregon)

Because this tool has only been used 3 times in 158 years, I think it's still safe to say it's not being abused.

A number of groups have suggested that Oregon voters are abusing the democratic process by attempting to recall elected officials. The Statesman Journal Editorial is one of them:

[…] recalls should be reserved for egregious situations, such as Kitzhaber’s, and not for petty grievances or political differences.

The Statesman Journal suggests that it's abuse to use democratic tools such as the recall for reasons the paper disagrees with. They also claim that voters are abusing the recall tool even after voters actually failed to use that tool against a number of Oregon legislators. How exactly can you abuse a tool that's never been used?

Saul Hubbard for The Register-Guard:

No state lawmaker has ever been successfully recalled in Oregon. But such efforts have become more and more frequent nationwide in recent years.

Does The Statesman Journal think I'm abusing the pack of gum I've talked about opening but haven't yet? They might have a case if Oregon legislators were being recalled left and right but they're not being recalled in any direction. It's silly to call what voters have done abuse. Oregon voters can't abuse a tool they haven't ever used.

Early Filings Include Few Surprises

We're a week since the first official filings for public office. I have yet to see a filing that has changed Oregon House ratings. However there are a few districts I will plan to keep my eyes on.

HD 30

Incumbent Rep. Joe Gallegos will run. So far his only challenger is David Taylor, an member of the Independent Party and a newcomer to the political arena. Taylor's biggest asset is his service in the United States Marine Corps from 2001 to 2013. If Republicans can't find a decent (or better) candidate, I would expect Gallegos to hold this seat.

Update: I fixed a grammatical error which suggested Gallegos would be expected to hold the seat even if Republicans do eventually find a good candidate. I'm waiting to see who announces before making that determination. Thanks to Oregon Outpost for bringing it to my attention.

HD 23

Mike Nearman has drawn a primary challenger. Beth Jones, a Republican and former Independent Party candidate in HD 23 is running with the backing of Senator Brian Boquist. Senator Boquist has made several in-kind contributions to Jones. Former Rep. Jim Thompson appears to have become an Independent and is considering running. He previously waged an unsuccessful write-in campaign against Nearman after losing in the primary in 2014.

Incumbents are difficult to knock out period. It's important to remember that anti-incumbency wasn't responsible for the primary outcome in HD 23. Instead voting records and which candidate gained social conservative support were primarily responsible for the results. Assuming no changes in alliances, Nearman should retain his seat.

Disclaimer: I am employed by Rep. Nearman in his Legislative office. I am not affiliated with the Nearman for Oregon campaign.

And So It Begins

On Thursday September 10th, official filing began for public office in Oregon. Incumbents, challengers, and no-names alike can now officially make their intentions known. In the coming days I will evaluate my ratings based on these latest development. This marks the passing of the first major deadline of the 2016 election in Oregon. Today we sit exactly 420 days from the election. There's very little we can know this far from the election. Here's the number one thing to remember: Nothing is set in stone.

There will be thousands of assumptions made about the election based on trends and new polling data, but we can't know much for certain. Anything can happen. Of one thing I'm certain. I expect this to be the most vicious election in my lifetime.

Breaking: Bill Post Files for Re-Election

State Representative Bill Post filed for re-election today. He issued the following statement:

“The people of House District 25 have made it clear that they want government to be held accountable and that is what I am committed to do. My office door has always been open and I have stood up for common sense and limited government. It would be an honor to continue serving my friends and neighbors in the state Capitol.”

Bill Post is a former radio talk show host of nearly 6 years. In 2014, he left The Bill Post Radio Show to run for the House District 25 vacated by current State Senator Kim Thatcher. Post won by a margin of 55-42 against Chuck Lee (Independent). Post represents Newberg, Keizer, and Saint Paul.

HD 25 Election Results 2014

All About Polling: Part One

Based on my back-of-the-napkin math, you will likely hear about 127 bajillion polls between now and Election Day. It’s important to know how to properly interpret these polls if you want to have a better understanding about what’s going on in the election.

Three Kinds of Polls

Broadly speaking there are three kinds of polls:

  1. Public Polls
  2. Internal Polls
  3. Persuasive Polls

It's important to not confuse the three. That's easier said then done since campaigns will work hard to spin polling and even intentionally confuse voters about what kind of poll is which.

Public Polls

Public polls are generally paid for and released by three kinds of organizations:

  • News organizations (e.g The Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, etc.),
  • Universities (e.g. Quinnipiac University, Monmouth University, etc.),
  • Polling firms (Rasmussen or YouGov)

Public polls are done to help the media better gauge who may win the election and as a public service. Part of this public service often releasing the underlying data. The underlying data for any public polls can be found in their entirety somewhere online in what's know as the crosstabs.

Crosstabs break down the responses to the different polling questions by age, race, gender, political party and more. This allows the media and readers to gauge candidate or issue support by group. Are older GOP voters more supportive of Rubio or Walker? You can find out by checking the cross-tabs.

Cross tabscan also used to examine if a poll is accurate. If you notice an an anomaly, say for instance 95% of Democratic women were supportive of a constitutional amendment banning abortion, you'd be correct in thinking there’s might be something wrong with that poll. This also suggests that other poll results might be similarly skewed.

Public polls are relatively accurate as polling goes. They can predict trends such as the national Democratic trend in 2008 or the national Republican trends in 2010 and 2014. However, public polls usually fail to anticipate wave elections. For example, polling for both 2014 was generally accurate as it showed Republicans winning control of the Senate. Public polls mostly failed to correctly predict Republicans would win by such wide margins in swing states or that Republicans would even win North Carolina.

Internal Polls

You will never see a true internal poll written about in the media. Internal polls usually include questions about several different races in a certain area, as well as questions testing the effectiveness of various messages. Campaigns hire polling firms, who then make an educated guess about who is going to vote in the upcoming election and then poll a representative sample of that electorate to figure where they stand and if they have a chance to win.

Internal polls are strategically important to a campaign. They are shared with legislative leadership, candidates, their strategy team, their consultants, and major donors or potential major donors (favorable poll results are used to raise money). Because of their strategic value, full internal polls are not released to the public or media because they may contain information campaigns don't want the public or opponents to know about their strategy, strengths, or weaknesses.

Persuasive Polls

When you read about an "internal poll" being released by a special interest group, campaign, or political party you're actually reading about a persuasive poll. Persuasive polls are released to persuade people to support a cause or candidate with good poll numbers or to generate good press for a candidate. Persuasive polls may be separate from an internal poll (purely to make a candidate look good) or just the most favorable numbers taken an internal.

These numbers are fairly useless because they are unaccompanied by underlying data and thus difficult to verify. Their origin point also makes them highly suspect. Persuasive Polls may also be released by partisan polling firms themselves in order to make their clients or party look good. Public Policy Polling (PPP) is high profile, national Democrat polling firm, and Harper Polling is an example of a national, Republican polling firm.

Conclusion

Now you know a little bit about the three kinds of polls. If you don’t have it totally figured out yet, don’t worry. In Part Two we will look at several polls and analyzes them to see which category they fit into.

Rating Open House Districts

Jim Redden for the Portland Tribune:

At least two of the elections that will help decide who controls the 2017 Oregon Legislature will take place in the Portland area next year. That’s because two Democratic state representatives have announced they won’t run for reelection, creating rare open seats heading into the 2016 campaign season.

House District 27 is being vacated by Tobias Read who is running for treasurer. House District 40 is being vacated by Brent Barton. House District 14 is likely to be vacated by Rep. Val Hoyle who is going to run for Secretary of State in what is expected to be a contentious primary

HD 27 Voter Registration

As of July, 2015 | Source: Portland Tribune

House District 27

This seat being open may increases its competitiveness slightly, but not nearly enough to overcome the 16 points voter registration advantage for Democrats. Read held this seat with little difficulty over the last two cycles. Unless Republicans can establish some currently unforeseen advantage, they would be better off focusing on a number of more competitive seats. This seat is rated Safe Democrat.

House District 40

After Barton announced he would not run in 2016, I took the opportunity to look at the relevant data for House District 40. Note the results from 2012 and 2014. Even under unfavorable (2012) and very unfavorable (2014) conditions for Oregon Republicans, they still managed to keep the numbers relatively close in this district. It will require a good candidate and quite a bit of cash, but this seat is winnable. This seat is rated Lean Democrat.

HD 14 Voter Registration

As of July, 2015 | Source: Portland Tribune

House District 14

As previously mention, Hoyle is making her way up the political food chain. This seat favors Democrats by about 10 points. Democrats already have two potential successors ready to run. This district is a steep climb for the generic Republican candidate but if a popular, elected Republican got into the race it could easily become more interesting. Until that happens this seat is rated Safe Democrat.

Wrap Up

Barton's seat will be a major target for sure. Read's is untouchable and Hoyle's is currently a bit out of reach. Republicans have additional (difficult) pickup opportunities elsewhere. I will evaluate those in the coming weeks and months.

Monica Wehby says she won't run for governor in 2016 after all →

"While heartened by the interest I've received about a potential run for Oregon Governor since reporters approached Monica PAC about private conversations on the subject, at this time my focus remains on my family, my patients, and Monica PAC's mission to help unite Oregon Republicans to victory in 2016," Wehby said in her statement.

This statement is specifically, if not strangely worded. Why did she feel the need to mention "reporters approached Monica PAC about private conversations"? I think it's very specifically worded becuase of this story noting no one asking her to run wanted to be known publicly.

Introducing Ratings for the Oregon House

For years, professional pundits have rated national and state political races. The rise of the Internet has brought amateur pundits and their knowledge to the political table as well. Recently, state legislative races have received additional recognition and focus from professional and amateur pundits. In 2014, The Oregonian handicapped the Oregon House and Oregon Senate. I would expect them to do this again in 2016. Beyond that, I don't know of anyone else rating seats in either chamber the Oregon Legislature. That has changed.

Today I'm introducing my ratings for the Oregon House of Representatives. These are my — admittedly amateur — ratings for each and every district in the Oregon House. I've divided each of the districts into one of following five categories:

  • Safe Republican: These seats are consistently and solidly Republican. Democrats are extremely unlikely to win.
  • Lean Republican: These seats favor a Republican but are more competitive and could be won by a Democrat.
  • Toss Up: These seats could be won either by Republicans or Democrats.
  • Lean Democrat: These seats favor a Democrat but are more competitive and could be won by a Republican.
  • Safe Democrat: These seats are consistently and solidly Democrat. Republicans are extremely unlikely to win.

These ratings reflect which party or candidate I think is most likely to win the seat at it stands today. The ratings are dynamic and will change based on new information (i.e. a strong candidate enters the race, a surprising endorsement, new polling numbers are released, etc.). I do my best to make sure these ratings accurately reflect who I think has the better chance to win each seat. In the future I may develop a more specific, quantifiable, impartial standard for determining which seats fall into what category. For now the ratings are much more informal; based partly on data and partly on my personal opinion and expertise.

If you disagree feel free to send feedback. You may have some thoughts or information that will cause me to rethink my ratings for any one of these districts. For now, please hit the button below and check out my rating for the Oregon House of Representatives.

Dennis Richardson ‘not interested in running’ in 2016 →

Taylor W. Anderson for The Bulletin:

Richardson told The Bulletin in an email that he’s been sought out as a candidate for “every statewide position on the 2016 ballot,” but he has no intention of running.

I had been hearing rumors suggesting he would run, but this seems pretty final. Don't expect to see Richardson on the 2016 ballot. Also more info about the other potential candidates.

Democratic Gov. Kate Brown has yet to announce a potential bid for election to the final two years for Kitzhaber’s term. Lake Oswego Republican Allen Alley has said he’s “seriously considering” entering the race for governor. William Ames Curtright, a Republican from Marion County who has run long-shot statewide campaigns in the past, has also established a gubernatorial campaign account.