Tax breaks on the line, Salem wrangles over 'broadband' →

Irrespective of the politics surrounding the tax breaks, the accurate way to settle this — technologically speaking — is to classify broadband as 25 Mbps.

Sam Carpenter may enter U.S. Senate race

Sam Carpenter is rumored to be considering a run for U.S. Senate as a Republican against Ron Wyden. Carpenter previously ran for the U.S. Senate in 2014 but quickly dropped out and endorsed Jason Conger against Monica Wehby. Carpenter will make a final decision by the end of this week.

Automatic social discipline →

I could just uninstall them or block their services at the network level, but I need both of them for parts of my work — I just don’t need to keep switching over to them constantly and wasting so many hours per week. Without any intervention, I’ll just habitually leave these apps open, right next to what I’m working on, resulting in a steady stream of tiny interruptions throughout the day as new messages trickle in.

I've been dealing with the exact same thing this week. My solution was to uninstall Facebook, and Tweetbot from all of my devices. However, I ran into the same issue as Marco did. I need these for part of my work but I don't need the constant distraction.

The Twitter website is awful. I hate using it. Same with the Facebook website. Forcing myself to log onto Reese terrible websites to use them has dramatically lessened the distraction. I am still going to give the script Marco wrote a shot because I still prefer Tweetbot and would rather use Twitter that way.

The Skimm →

I write about a variety of things here on the site, but you're most likely reading for my coverage of Oregon elections. I've been trying to provide more in depth and comprehensive coverage of elections in Oregon. My newsletter also helps summarize that for readers.

I don't have the time or any kind of funding that would allow me to cover all politics or U.S. news (nor would I want to). So how should you keep up on news from around the country and world? That's where The Skimm comes in.

The Skimm is a daily email newsletter that summarizes everything you need to know about the news that day. They combine important, and interesting news with some excellent humor. Sign up with my link to give me credit for referring you and check it out.

Introducing Twitter Polls →

If you want the public’s opinion on anything — what to name your dog, who will win tonight’s game, which election issue people care most about — there’s no better place to get answers than on Twitter.

I'm interested to see how Twitter polls develops. This isn't the future of political polling yet, but it may have some value. Right now answers are anonymous. It would be impossible to get an accurate sample of an electorate from even the least diverse community in the world.

Democratic Lawmaker Writes Check to Vulnerable Republican Across the Oregon Legislature Aisle →

State Sen. Mark Hass (D-Beaverton) this week made a $500 campaign contribution to state Rep. Mark Johnson (R-Hood River).

This doesn't mean as much as you might think. If I asked a Democrat for a tissue and they hand me one, that would be equivalent. It's friendly but no where near a full throated endorsement.

Mayor Charlie Hales Abandons Bid for Re-election →

I'm going to go ahead and call this one for Wheeler right now. If I’m Wheeler right now, I quickly poll test every potential opponent to ensure I’m not vulnerable and then hold kittens in TV ads for the next year.

Former Speaker Dave Hunt Won't Run For Old House Seat →

I'm not terribly surprised by his decsion. I haven't heard a lot of good things about his brief Speakership.

All About Polling: Part Two

In Part One we saw there are three kinds of polls:

1. Public Polls
2. Internal Polls
3. Persuasive Polls

It's not always very simple to determine which category a poll falls into or how to distinguish junk polls from quality polling.

Let's take a look at this poll that was commissioned by The Daily Caller. First we must evaluate the source of the poll: it was commissioned by The Daily Caller, a center-right online publication, which suggests that this poll will likely slant Republican. Not all partisan polling is bad but it's best to assume a slant in partisan polling.

Secondly, we should take a close look to see what the data says. If you look on page 11 of the poll, you'll notice it shows 47% of African Americans supporting Republicans Richardson and Wehby. While a shift of African Americans towards Republicans isn't improbable, a voting bloc that normally goes 80-20 or better for Democrats suddenly splitting 50-50 is out of the ordinary. Additionally, consulting other polls of the same race showed African Americans supporting Democrats at traditional margins.

Thus we can come to two conclusions: 1) This poll is probably intended to be slanted towards Republicans based on the source and the dramatic headline that accompanied it. 2) This is a junk poll that is not only biased but just totally useless for much of anything. I would categorize this Daily Caller poll as a persuasive poll.

In part one I mentioned that you will never see a true internal poll in the media. This is a true statement. However, I happen to have gotten my hands on an internal tracking poll that has been anonymized. You can read the topline survey and the full crosstabs. These will give you a good idea of what a real internal campaign poll looks like. I'm not an expert poll interpreter by any means but take a look at the topline survey. It gives you a good idea of what the numbers mean.

There are two kinds of internal polls. The first is a baseline poll. These are longer and more costly polls that test a lot of issues and aspects of a candidate and their opponent. These are done usually once (maybe twice) per campaign.

The second kind of poll is a tracking survey like the one you can read above. These are done more frequently, are shorter, and less costly than a baseline poll. Tracking surveys are useful to test where the candidates are at any point in a race. For instance, a campaign might do a big mailer to teachers and then do a tracking survey to see how that helped them both with teachers and overall.

Polling is complicated. I am not always the best at explaining complicated topics. If you have any questions feel free to get in touch. I may publish a follow up if there's enough questions.

50 Things I’ve Learned About Publishing a Weblog →

Shawn is the one who inspired me to write a website in the first place. He's someone that I personally look up to as a great writer. All of his tips are important and will make you a whatever it is you want to be. However, this particular tip is the most important one you can learn.

• Show up every day.

Analyzing The Force Awakens Theatrical Poster

Yesterday the Star Wars: The Force Awakens theatrical poster was released. Below is my analysis of the poster, but first here's a look at the poster itself.

Here are my thoughts based on the poster:

• Darth Maul/Revan/Vader looks awesome. I'm hopeful they will develop him more like Vader and less like Maul. I don't want the big villain to get killed in movie one (seven?).
• There's a new new Death Star?
• John Boyega looks like a boss with a lightsaber.
• Anybody seen Luke? Maybe Luke is (old man) kidnapped in this movie?
• The new Stormtroopers look awesome but also kind of like they were designed by Nike.
• So far Abrams and company are striking a good balance. It's familiar but new and intriguing.

Kitzhaber foe Dennis Richardson weighs political comeback — as secretary of state →

Dennis Richardson back in late August.

Richardson told The Bulletin in an email that he’s been sought out as a candidate for “every statewide position on the 2016 ballot,” but he has no intention of running.

Dennis Richardson yesterday:

Instead, in a brief interview Thursday with The Oregonian/OregonLive, Richardson confirmed persistent whispers he's thinking of joining next year's Republican primary for secretary of state.

Even a few months is a lifetime in politics.

Hales Gets Blindsided as Former Mayor Katz, Potter and Adams Endorse Wheeler →

The only way this could get worse for Hales is if he gets former mayor Goldschmidt's endorsement.

An Interview with Rep. Bill Post

This is the first in what is hopefully a series of interview with legislators on the role of social media in legislating and campaigning.

You recently appeared in an Oregonian article about Twitter use among Oregon legislators. They found you're one of the top users. How did you get started using Twitter?

Ok to start let me address the opening question from the O story: Twitter is actually not my biggest social media source. I'm more Facebook. I started my Twitter and FB accounts about the same time for my radio show, when I started the run for the House last year, I opened new accounts. In both cases, I knew I HAD to reach more people with my message and found that social media was the outlet.

Editor's Note: Facebook boasts 1.28 billion monthly active users as of Mach 2014. Twitter is about half that at over 500 million.

Do you spend a lot of time trying to strike a balance on social media between authentic Bill Post vs. optimizing your message for voters?

I thought I was always "authentic" Bill Post. That's why folks elected me.

Good point about authenticity. Do you think on the whole that most public officials are authentic on social media?

I think most may want or even try but it looks to me like most don't have a grasp of social media and have their staff posting for them. They see it as I don't know, some "kid thing".

Which do you think is worse, a public official who isn’t going to be authentic on social media or one who doesn’t use social media at all?

Worse? One who doesn't use it. Stupid really. Probably still doing 99% mail. Dark ages man.

How important do you consider social media to be in a campaign?

I think social media is more critical to a campaign than just about any other media. You can target your audience more specifically and there's always the chance of the "ripple" effect for that one post that goes viral.

Do you think social media outreach is better than direct voter contact?

No, of course direct voter outreach is best, but it's darn close.

How would you rank the following campaign activities based on their value in campaigning: Door knocking, events, traditional ads (TV and radio), lawn/field signs, social media, online ads (social and search).

1. Events
2. Social Meda
3. Door Knocking
4. Online Ads
5. Lawn/Field Signs
6. Traditional Ads

Do you think social media has hurt or improved political discourse in the U.S.?

I think a little of both. Folks are using social media as their "news" without checking the sources, then repeating the same misinformation. On the other hand, social media has more people engaged in politics, it seems, then ever before. Will that translate to votes? I don't know.

What's one tip you have for politicians using social media now?

Find the social media that you are comfortable with and post, post, post. At least 4 times a day, SOMETHING, anything. Not your staff, YOU.

Who do you think has the best social media in Oregon? (could be a anybody, elected official, friend, group, company etc).

To be honest, I haven't found many people as engaged in social media as I have been, but then I have been doing it since the beginning due to my radio career.

My thanks to Representative Bill Post for very kindly agreeing to be interviewed.

Deschutes County releases video of Kitzhaber, Hayes at Bend landfill →

The most interesting thing about the video to me is all of the Cylvia Hayes campaign signs they're tossing. A lesser known fact about Hayes, she ran against Ben Westlund (back when he was a Republican) in 2002 for House District 53.