On Saturday, January 30th, 2016 I presented two breakout sessions at the Western Liberty Network conference in Hillsboro. I'm posting my presentations here for the first time ever.
Becoming Relevant: How to Build the Relevance of Your Political Organization
Poll Position: How to Understand What Matters in Political Polling
The Portland Business Journal:
“Bringing tens of thousands of people into the ACA marketplace, many of them with acute health care needs, has been a difficult process to manage,” said Robert Gootee, CEO of Moda Health parent company Moda Inc., in an email.
OHSU has been trying to get in on the ground floor of this phenomenal investment opportunity in a failing insurance company.
From the Portland Tribune:
In a statement, the university expressed concern but did not directly address whether it planned to follow through or expand its involvement to address Moda's need for capital. The OHSU board is meeting today.
I think it's ridiculous they're considering going through with this. I think it's insane they might expand their involvement (presumably with more money).
The fact that Donald Trump thinks he can control Apple is super cute.
$15 Now, Raise the Wage, and Governor Kate Brown have some pretty bad ideas about the minimum wage. Yet, somehow I’ve stumbled onto a minimum wage proposal that is worse. It’s worse than putting all of those Democrat minimum wage proposals together and dressing them up like a scary clown.
It all started while reading an article about Cliff Thomason on Oregon Outpost. Thomason is a Independent candidate for Governor. I was reading the interview and came across this line:
[Thomason] was asked about his position on the minimum wage, which is an escalating minimum wage based on age.
Hahahaha. Oh wait. I think he might be serious. Oh dear he is serious. The full proposal is on his website. To be fair his proposal starts out somewhat benign:
For workers up through 20 years of age there would be no state minimum wage. The Federal minimum wage is currently at $7.25, which I believe is appropriate for someone in that age category.
Sounds like a training wage. It’s good for businesses and young people. It’s weird that it's based on age instead of work experience but that can be forgiven. Here's where it gets bad:
Ages 21-30 = $8.50/hr 31-40 = $10.00/hr 41-50 = $12.00/hr 51 and over = $13.50/hr.
Thomason wants to build age-based discrimination into the minimum wage. That's a terrible idea. This is the kind of policy a recent political science major writes when he’s annoyed he can’t get a job. He knows just enough to be dangerous, but not enough to avoiding writing horribly discriminatory laws.
This minimum wage proposal prices older people out of minimum wage jobs. Businesses like McDonald's would only be staffed by young people because the older some is, the more expensive they would be to hire based on stupid minimum wage policy. This idea is highly discriminatory and poorly thought out. Unless people suddenly go crazy while filling out their ballots we should be safe but I’m still going to be on the lookout.
Recently, I have been inspired by the Republican idealism of Marco Rubio and he has renewed my belief in the American system and Republican Party. I have decided to become more involved in his mission for a New American Century.
Marco Rubio is making the Republican tent bigger.
Willamette Week:
Starting Jan. 13, our comments section will be different from any other comments section in the world. We're partnering with a Portland startup called Civil, which has created Civil Comments, the first commenting platform specifically designed to improve the way people treat each other online
Oregon is known for being nice. In that way we're almost like the Canada of the United States. It makes sense that Oregon is where a product for nice comments was created.
Comments sections some of the most terrible places on the Internet. I don't have comments on my website on purpose. I never read the comments anywhere, but I might just start reading them on Willamette Week.
I've never been happy with the design of my website. It has taken my a long time to figure out why that's been the case. This summer it finally made sense.
Previous designs of this site were always just pre-designed templates with some minor adjustments. I was modifying someone else's design to fit my needs. While the designs were good, they just never felt like they were mine. In the Fall of last year, I started working on my own design. I started from scratch in Pixelmator (the app I use instead of Photoshop) and did a mock-up of my site which you can see below.
The inspiration for my final design. The final product doesn't look exactly like it but I think it looks pretty good.
This time I chose my own typography and design. Then I found a template that could do what I wanted.
I was still modifying someone else’s design, that part didn’t change. Yet somehow I felt better about it since I had spent those few minutes thinking about what I wanted and designed a mock up. It’s those extra steps that made the design mine.
It was those few extra minutes I spent thinking about my design that made my site not only look better, but look the way I wanted. For the first time I'm fully responsible for the way my site looks. I started with an idea. Planned it out. And then implemented it on my site. It was similar to a process a real designer might use. It felt good.
It's this strategy of preparing, planning, and then implementing that I'll be using going forward for the website overall. In the past I would have an idea for a post or feature, write it up quickly, edit it even faster, and post it. While that wasn't terrible, it did sometimes lead to less than stellar outcomes. This year I'm putting more thought into what I post and when. I'm going to spend more time planning and editing and less time hurriedly posting something so I can be "first".
In the last year, my website has grown tremendously. I've found a niche to write for, I've increased my readership, and I've started some big projects. Now I'm spending an extra few minutes to plan even more. Both for new and existing features. I think it will result in better writing, better responses, and a better website.
Thank you for reading. I hope you continue to enjoy my site. I look forward to 2016.
Money is an important resource in an election. It’s so important in fact that until the votes are counted and the primary election results are in, political analysts often look at the amount of money candidates have raised and spent to measure how they’re doing in a campaign. Analysts will sometimes refer to this as a money primary. Statewide elections are won on Name ID and that requires cash for candidates that are not previously well known. Name ID is a fancy political term used to signal whether or not voters know your name. Here's the current state of the money raised and spent in the Secretary of State for both Democrats and Republican.
At first glance Devlin appears to have the advantage. He starts and ends with the most money. A closer look reveals he has raised and spent less than every candidate except Richardson (who entered the race last). That suggests Devlin is the least invested in the campaign at this point. He may be waiting to do his big push, but it's also possible he doesn't want to waste money running for Secretary of State if he's planning on dropping out.
Hoyle and Avakian have both demonstrated impressive fundraising, having both raised $200k this year. Avakian has spent half as much as Hoyle has, but has more cash on hand. I wouldn't be surprised if current polling showed a close race among the two.
On the GOP front Leiken has been spending as fast as he’s been taking it in. He's attempting to build up Name ID as quickly as possible to gain a primary advantage. Richardson comes in last in all categories, but probably started with some of the highest Name ID in the field after running for Governor in 2014. He announced his campaign a couple of months later than the other four candidates currently in the race. I expect he will start campaigning a lot harder after the first of the year.
To summarize, Avakian and Hoyle appear to be duking it out. Devlin is in a holding pattern of sorts. Leiken is working to raise his name ID and Richardson is off to a slow start.
Sources have informed me that Senator Richard Devlin is having a fundraiser next monthw with the Senate Democrat Leadership Fund. Although it's possible Senate Democrats are seeking to bolster his Secretary of State campaign, I find it more likely he's going to drop out of the Democrat primary election for Secretary of State.
The most likely scenario is Devlin has been having trouble gaining traction against Hoyle and Avakian. He has the most money in the bank of the three ($300k+), but has raised the least of the three so far this cycle. Since his budget-writing counterpart in the House, Peter Buckely, is retiring, Devlin has likely been asked to stick it out as the Senate Co-chair of Ways & Means. I wouldn't be surprised if he makes that determiniation in the next few weeks.
All the Bailey camp released was a memo about a poll, not the actual poll. It's hard to tell if the poll is accurate without seeing it.
$5,000 for website changes
Hayes set aside money to add the "ocean acidification" issue to her company's website. Through much of 2013, Hayes' website didn't mention the term. Yet an internet archive shows that by late that year, "ocean acidification" appeared in a new drop-down menu of her Bend-based firm's site.
The only way it would cost that much to update a website is if Hayes hired a top-tier lawyer to type slower than a turtle. I say this knowing full well turtles can't use computers.
Sometimes shopping for Christmas gifts for someone can be difficult. You need to find out what they like, find the time to get it, consider your budget, and consider time required to mail a package if they live far away. It's a big process. I'm here to try and make it a tiny bit easier. Here's two suggests for what to get (some) guys.
Read MoreA letter from a Portland resident to The Oregonian regarding the PERS crisis in Oregon:
If it's necessary to change the state Constitution to get around the Oregon Supreme Court rulings, do it!
I understand the feeling and would support this position except for one major issue. If Oregon changed its constitution to modify PERS it could be declared unconstitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court. The Court has a fairly high standard that must be met in order for them to allow a breach of contract by the state. I don't think things are bad enough in Oregon to reach that standard yet.
These illustrations are wonderful. I joined the Mac family further down the line at Lion, but I still love learning about the history of the Mac.
Oregon hasn't had a Republican governor in nearly thirty years. Republicans haven't won statewide office since 2002 when U.S. Senator Gordon Smith won re-election. Since that time, a number of Republican governor's have been elected in blue states across the country. These Republicans have had varying pathways to the governorship. In a series of posts, I’m going to evaluate the strategies of various blue-state GOP governors and see which ones could reasonably be recreated here and which may not. First up, Illinois and Governor Bruce Rauner.
Read More