This could be a tough race. Carter could use "first African-American woman elected to the Oregon Legislature" in her campaign to some powerful effect in a comeback effort. Frederick isn's the incumbent, but has represented half of that same district in the House. Carter and Frederick are both quasi-incumbents in this scenario. Neither are technically the incumbent, but both have legislative experience that is beneficial in a Senate campaign. Lawmaking experience is obviously not a pre-requisite, but I think some voters certainly prefer their representation in the Senate to have some experience.